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Posted By admin on November 21, 2009

Capacity utilization (CAPU) emerges as an important factor for high-yield investments because it is a good indicator for the direction of high-yield spreads. The strongest correlation (0.76) is found by lagging CAPU rates by about six months. Low CAPU rates are not sustainable in the long term. Companies have to adjust their business models in order to address the overcapacity. A strong correlation can be found between CAPU rates and Commercial and Industrial lending. The year-on-year change in Commercial and Industrial lending will fall with falling CAPU rates and vice versa.

Sectors with high utilization rates will experience greater manufacturing demand and will probably benefit from a better pricing power. On the other hand, sectors with low CAPU rates are more likely to have little or no pricing power and are forced to shrink the available capacity. This implies that sectors with improved CAPU rates on a year-on-year basis should experience tighter spreads than sectors with worsening CAPU rates where spreads should tend to widen.

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Posted By admin on November 11, 2009

The distress ratio is an indicator for the current state of the high-yield market. It can be defined as the percentage amount of all outstanding highyield bonds trading at a spread of at least 1,000 bp over a comparable government bond. The lower the distress ratio the better the shape of the high-yield market.

There is a lag of around four months between the distress ratio and Moody’s default rate observable for the US high-yield market. At a correlation of 0.89 we can conclude that the current levels of the distress ratio allow to make a reasonable forecast for future default rates. A falling distress ratio implies falling default rates in future.

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Tags: annuitant, Annuities, banking, banks, Bearish Patterns, Budgeting, cash, company costs, credit, currency cycles, loans

Posted By admin on October 5, 2009

Employer stock is about loyalty, not investment return. Many 401(k) plans match contributions from employees with shares of employer stock. About a third of all 401(k) assets are company stock. Stock option plans allow employees to buy shares of employer stock at a discount. Stock ownership plans are funded entirely with employer stock. Tax benefits in these plans encourage the purchase of employer stock. Employees are also encouraged to buy employer stock outright. Advancement in the corporate structure requires playing by the rules.

Many employees also believe that they understand the company better than outsiders do. This often turns out to be pure overconfidence. Few employees know anything about stock analysis and evaluation. Their inside view often blinds them to competitive threats and negative market conditions. As a result, employees frequently have half or more of their investment assets in employer stock.

For employees who value loyalty more than investment return, this is fine. For other employees, this is a disaster. Individual stocks are highly volatile. You will need to adjust to wild swings in the value of your shares. If your retirement depends on the value of your company stock, you may be forced to retire later or not at all. Solid companies can quickly turn into a mess. Corporate troubles are usually accompanied by large layoffs. You may lose your job at the same time the stock collapses. Most employees will be happier selling company stock down to 5 percent or less of your portfolio. Sometimes in life, we have to choose between guilt and selfabuse.

For most employees, guilt is the better choice.

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Posted By admin on September 7, 2009

With optimism as the prevailing attitude, it is heretical to insist stock prices will decline, and sacrilegious to make money from declining stock prices. Shorts are vilified by the financial services industry and in the financial press. Mutual fund managers often declare their abhorrence of shorting stocks, lest any potential investor think them a traitor. Television interviewers hark on the shorts’ mistakes, and often give them unfair coverage, if any. Intimidated by social pressure, few investors dare go short.

You must be an independent thinker capable of acting in spite of social ostracism if you wish to short stocks. Some will brand you a rebel. Few investors will be comfortable going short. Switching to real estate or oil and gas partnerships may be easier. Rather than being vilified by the equity culture, you will be ignored.

Even investors with the self-esteem to go short may not have the required emotional fortitude. The loss potential of going short is unlimited. Say you buy 1,000 shares of a stock at $10. Your potential loss, should it go bankrupt, is $10,000. On the other hand, sell 1,000 shares short at $10, the potential loss is unlimited. If the stock moves up to $20 and you cover, you lose $10,000. At $30, you lose $20,000. At $110, you lose $100,000 on a $10,000 investment. The seeming unlimited potential gain of stocks works against you. Anyone with difficulty admitting mistakes, taking losses, and moving on will be miserable shorting stock. If you are the type that holds on to losing positions waiting in pain to get out if you ever break even, you will be even more unhappy with shorts. Though stockbrokers are often blamed and sued in shorting cases, invariably the investor’s lack of self-knowledge was the real culprit.

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Tags: currency trading, forex, getting out of debt, home foreclosure, home value

Posted By admin on August 28, 2009

Investors looking for a real thrill ride may be interested in shorting stock. Normally you purchase a stock at its current price and then sell it at some future date at an unknown price. You are hoping the future price is higher. Stock exchanges allow you to reverse the process; you can sell a stock that you do not own at the current price as long as you promise to purchase the stock at some future date at an unknown price. By selling now, you have locked in your sales price. You hope that the future purchase price will be lower so you can make profit. For example, if you sell ABC short today for $50, you hope to buy it in six months for $25 realizing a gain of $25. If six months from now ABC sells for $75 and you cover your short at that price, you lose $25.

There are two crucial differences between going short and going long: going short requires going against the will of the vast majority of investors and the potential losses from going short are unlimited.

Most investors are optimists. They believe over the long-term stock prices go up. The financial services industry and the financial press cater to this optimism. There are tremendous commissions, spreads, and management fees to be made from optimistic investors. Best-selling investment books usually spout tales of compounding stock prices turning thousands of dollars into millions. Cautious investors are likely to take their money out of the market, cancel newsletters, and avoid investment books.

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Tags: banking, credit cards, credit score, currency trading, getting out of debt

Posted By admin on September 26, 2008

In the night reached the financial crisis in the U.S. a new peak: The largest savings bank in the country collapsed. The government meanwhile is struggling to continue a plan to rescue the industry.

The regulator (OTS) had in the night to Friday decided to Washington Mutual to close.

Part of the savings bank group will provide 1.9 billion U.S. dollars from the U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase over. The customer will operate as usual go on.

The shares of Washington Mutual were in the real estate crisis massively lost value. Since the 15th September, it deposits outflows amounting to 16.7 billion U.S. dollars given. According to OTS, the savings in the series no longer has sufficient liquidity to meet their obligations. This has led to an unsafe condition relating to the business transaction.

The institute, based in Seattle reportedly has assets of around 370 billion U.S. dollars and deposits amounting to 188 billion U.S. dollars.

As the head of the U.S. Deposit Protection Fund (FDIC), Sheila Bair said, had a quick buyer for the ailing bank need to find a scared to reassure customers. Normally, the fund Failed institutions before the weekend in order to give them time until Monday for an orderly opening of the transactions should be ensured.

JPMorgan is buying into a heavyweight in the retail business. Only four months ago, the Bank was the troubled U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns over.

The plans for a heavy billion rescue package the government is meanwhile stalled. A crisis meeting between Bush and the two presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama had brought no agreement. On the contrary: The Democrats complained that only when the meeting at the White House from an alternative proposal JohnMcCains have to learn. Now is not expected before the weekend with a solution expected.

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Tags: credit cards, credit score, home foreclosure, home value, local markets, money advice, payday

Posted By admin on September 26, 2008

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Posted By admin on September 6, 2008

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